New research highlights how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20% over the next five years from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025.
According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research, aviation will need to be at the heart of this pivot. The findings suggest that the value of trade through Heathrow to non-EU countries could increase by 11% by 2025, while trade with EU countries decreases by 7% over the same period. Regions across the UK would benefit from these new trading links, with Heathrow playing a key role in opening up valuable new markets from the Asia Pacific and Australia to the US.
Aviation is critical to the government’s plans for a Global Britain post-Brexit. Heathrow alone has the potential to facilitate a £204 billion trade bonanza benefitting British businesses in every corner of the country, creating opportunities for the entire aviation sector and strengthening the UK’s trade network.
However, this trade boost won’t be realised unless the UK’s aviation industry is supported by government policies and allowed to resume. Industry figures for May show that some of the European competitors that benefitted from sector specific support during the pandemic, such as the Netherlands and Germany, are seeing the fastest growth. Cargo tonnage at the UK’s hub airport is still down 19% on 2019 levels, compared to both Schiphol and Frankfurt which have surpassed their 2019 levels, growing by 14% and 9% respectively over the same time period.
This research comes as Heathrow works with British Airways and Virgin Atlantic to launch trials that aim to help government and industry understand how to practically ease restrictions for fully vaccinated passengers, a move which is key for restarting travel and trade. By capitalising on the country’s vaccine dividend, ministers can help to deliver this economic stimulus for exporters across Britain, ensuring the UK retains its competitive edge as the country comes out of lockdown.
“Heathrow is well placed to supercharge the government’s Global Britain ambitions and deliver a post-lockdown, post-Brexit economic stimulus worth billions of pounds,” said John Holland-Kaye, CEO Heathrow. “As the UK’s only hub airport and largest port by value, we are ready to play a central role in creating economic opportunities for businesses across the country, facilitating new free trade agreements and serving as a vital link to our key trading partners. Ministers must seize the opportunity to secure this crucial economic boost by backing British aviation and its own vaccination programme by safely easing travel restrictions for fully vaccinated passengers from July 19th.”
To showcase the work of British businesses up and down the country that export their goods and services via Heathrow, the airport will also be launching a Global Britain Business Champions campaign in coming months. These businesses have kept the country trading over the last year and are set to play a central role in driving a global Britain in the years ahead.
Key Strategic Partners are the British Aviation Group (BAG), the airport supplier trade association representing over 200 companies, and the Regional and Business Airports Group (RABA), the regional airports trade association of over 40 UK and British Dependency airports.
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